Background. High growth rates of technological development of the society contribute to the increase of the level of electricity consumption, which is one of the reasons for the decrease of the quality of electricity in the energy system. An increase of power consumption leads to an increase of peak loads and an increase of daily fluctuations of electricity consumption. Under such conditions, voltage fluctuations occur, causing an increase of current and voltage drops in the electrical network, thereby deteriorating the quality of the supplied electricity. Decentralized energy allows the source of generated power to be brought closer to the consumer, thereby reducing the resistance of the power supply lines and, as a result, the voltage drop in a given section. It leads to the improvement of the quality of electricity. One of the practicable methods to implement decentralized energy is the use of alternative energy sources, including wind turbine. The efficiency of wind turbines depends on the accuracy of assessment of their energy potential. However, the known approaches to calculate electricity generated by wind turbines can be inaccurate due to the fact that an extended group of meteorological parameters on the power of the wind flow are not considered. Thus, it determines the relevance of the development of methods for modeling the energy potential of wind turbines. The purpose of this study is to develop a multifactor mathematical model for assessing the energy potential of wind power plants. It allows us to increase the accuracy of forecasting the generated electricity when studying wind power plant operation taking into account the dynamics of atmospheric pressure, temperature and relative humidity of the air in the process of power generation.
Materials and methods. The authors have carried out a theoretical study of the dependence of the amount of electrical energy generated by a wind turbine on the dynamics of an extended group of meteorological parameters to develop a multifactor mathematical model for evaluating the energy potential of wind power plants. Experimental studies of the dependence of the amount of electricity generated by a wind turbine on the dynamics of atmospheric pressure, temperature and relative humidity of the air have been carried out to confirm the adequacy of the proposed mathematical model. The applicability of the results of the study has been evaluated by means of comparative analysis. The software package “R-7 Office” has been used to collect and process the obtained data
Results. A multifactor mathematical model for evaluating the energy potential of a wind power plant has been developed. A study of the dependence of the amount of electrical energy on changes in atmospheric pressure, temperature and relative humidity has been conducted. An assessment of the feasibility of the research results when calculating the electricity generated by wind turbines has been made. It has been established that the proposed model allows us to increase in the accuracy of calculations of electricity generated by a wind generator by up to 2%.
Conclusions. The proposed mathematical model will improve the accuracy of forecasting the generated electricity when studying the operation of a wind turbines, taking into account the dynamics of an extended group of meteorological parameters. The results of the study can be used to make more accurate forecasts of electricity generation by wind turbines.